New Polls Show Sa’ar-Led Party Over 20 Seats, Second to Likud

If elections were held in Israel today, the new party of former Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar would receive 20 seats, a new survey published Friday by Yisrael Hayom showed.

A Ma’ariv poll, conducted by Panels Politics based on data collected by the internet survey company Panel4All, also found Sa’ar’s party in second place to the Likud.

According to that poll, if new elections were held today, the Likud would remain the largest faction in the Knesset with 27 seats – down from the 36 seats in the current Knesset.

The poll presented two different scenarios: one in which Sa’ar’s new party does not add any new prominent political or public figures to its list beyond the two MKs from the Derech Eretz party, who joined the new party this week, and a second scenario in which former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot and the chair of the Knesset’s Coronavirus Committee Yifat Shasha-Biton (Likud) both join Sa’ar’s new faction.

The two are reportedly considering joining Sa’ar’s party, with Shasha-Biton looking to be tapped for the second spot on the list after Sa’ar.

If Shasha-Biton and Eizenkot were to join Sa’ar’s party, the new faction would receive 21 seats in the next Knesset.

Yamina would receive 15 seats in this scenario – three times what it currently has, but a significant drop from previous polls which showed the party winning as many as 24 seats before Sa’ar split off from the Likud.

Yesh Atid-Telem would fall to 11 seats in this scenario, while Blue and White would sink to just six seats.

Yisrael Beytenu is projected to maintain its seven seats if Eizenkot and Shasha-Biton join Sa’ar’s party. On the other hand, if neither Shasha-Biton or Eizenkot join Sa’ar, the new party would win 16 seats, as would Yamina.

Yesh Atid-Telem would receive 13 seats in this scenario, while Blue and White would win seven.

Yisrael Beytenu, in this scenario, would receive eight seats.

The Joint List of Arab parties is projected to win 12 seats in either scenario, while Meretz would win five seats in either scenario.

Among the chareidi factions, neither party would be affected by Sa’ar’s new party, with Shas receiving nine seats in either scenarios, and United Torah Judaism holding steady at seven seats in both cases.

Labor, Gesher, Jewish Home, and Otzma Yehudit all failed to cross the electoral threshold in either scenario.

In the Yisrael Hayom poll, Yamina slumped to fourth with 12 seats. The Likud, led by Netanyahu, remained the largest party, with 28 seats.

The Joint List, currently having 15 mandates in the Knesset polled at 13.

Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid faction also slid downwards – to Sa’ar’s benefit – receiving 12 seats.

Defense Minister and Alternate Prime Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue and White party received just seven seats.

Yisrael Beyteinu and Meretz received six seats each.

Shas also received nine seats in this poll, and United Torah Judaism holding steady at seven seats, both the same as they have in the current Knesset.