INTERVIEW: The Elite Don’t Decide the Election

By Reuvain Borchardt

Zac McCrary, a Democrat pollster at Impact Research whose clients include the Biden campaign, discusses the state of the presidential race. 

McCrary’s firm also worked to elect Biden in 2020. He is the only pollster to help his clients flip GOP House seats from red to blue in both 2020 and 2022. During nearly 20 years as a Democratic pollster and strategist, McCrary has advised Governors, members of Congress, the Democratic Senate and House Campaign Committees, state legislative caucuses, and public-interest groups, as well as labor unions, major corporations, and nonprofits.

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What is the current state of the presidential race? 

Polling this early often has more questions than answers. Polling this early can tell you if it’s likely to be a blowout, or it’s going to be close. And the polling is telling us this presidential race is going to be close. There are reasons for optimism from the Biden perspective, but there’s also a real chance Trump can win. I don’t dispute that for a second. The polling is telling us this is going to be our fourth straight really competitive election that’s going to come down to a point or two in a handful of states. 

Biden is facing an opponent in Donald Trump who many people say tried to overturn an election and doesn’t believe in democracy, and who is facing 91 criminal charges. Why is Biden so vulnerable?

Biden’s single biggest challenge is that voters still feel they’re struggling economically, that prices are still going up or at least have not gone back down. They’re comparing what they’re paying for ground beef, milk, and eggs, and other groceries and essentials — not necessarily comparing it to last year, because there’s some data that would indicate that inflation has slowed and it’s not going up anymore — but they’re comparing it to four or five years ago.

Most people are pretty cost-sensitive, living paycheck to paycheck or feeling like they’re one emergency away from being in some real financial distress. When that’s your situation and, over the last few years, you’ve seen prices go up all around you while your wages or salary has not matched that, you’re going to be frustrated and you’re going to be inclined to take it out on the people in charge. 

There’s also, certainly, this narrative that goes around about his age and whether he continues to be up to the job. That was the narrative in 2020, as well, and he met that challenge; he met the threshold to demonstrate to voters that he was indeed up to the job. But he’s a little older now, and voters continue to have some of those concerns. That remains one of his challenges: to show voters over the coming months that despite being in his early 80s, he continues to be up to the job. 

You mentioned inflation as being a problem for Biden. One would think that candidates would try to focus on the issues that are their strengths and avoid mentioning their weaknesses. But Biden has actually made a big deal about promoting “Bidenomics.” So it doesn’t seem that he thinks it’s a liability in the way that you do. 

I don’t know specifically about that term, necessarily. But certainly, if you’re the incumbent president, you’ve got to be making the case aggressively about how your policies and your leadership have positively impacted voters, including their pocketbooks. 

It doesn’t mean that you are Pollyannaish about it, and are disconnected from reality. Tone is really important in that regard. As an incumbent, it’s imperative to talk about what you’ve done to help push things the right way. But you have to show that you are in touch, and you get that people are still struggling to get ahead and are worried they’re going to fall behind. 

You have to thread that needle on tone, where you’re taking credit and informing voters of the things that you’ve done to push things in the right direction, but also not taking a victory lap in a way that would indicate that you are out of touch. 

And, historically, that has been a strength of Biden’s. He comes from middle-class, working-class roots. The strength of Biden compared to a lot of political figures is that voters think he gets it in his bones, what working people, middle-class folks go through. And he has to demonstrate that that is still who he is, how he’s governed, and what another Biden term would entail.

Biden is uniquely well equipped among political figures to thread that needle of both demonstrating as president what you’ve done to help spur the economy and help lower costs where you can, but also show that you get it that there’s still a lot of people who are hurting. 

Biden spoke the other day about “shrinkflation,” blaming companies for shrinking the size of snack bags while charging the same price, a hidden form of inflation. Critics say Biden is blaming corporations for problems caused by his own inflationary policies. Do you think voters will accept Biden’s argument that “shrinkflation” is the fault of the corporations rather than Biden’s inflationary policies?

Telling the full story about all of this is important, in terms of why things are costing so much. Certainly there are macro factors in the world economy and the U.S. economy. But making sure that corporate special interests, a lot of these bad actors, are not let off the hook in terms of what they’ve done to take advantage of people and make difficult times even more difficult, that’s absolutely fair game. And I think it rings true to a lot of voters that big corporations are trying to further pad their profits during times of crisis. It’s very credible to the average voter that a lot of these corporations don’t have their back during these difficult economic times. And Biden calling that out is, again, indicative of his middle-class, working-class roots and sensibilities.

We’ve all seen Biden’s stumbles both physically and mentally: tripping on the stairs of Air Force 1, and seeming to be confused at times when he speaks, and not knowing where to go, getting off the stage, etc. Is it a legitimate concern for voters — his mental and physical health right now, and how it might decline across another four years?

If a significant share of voters are concerned about it, which I think they are, then it is a legitimate concern, for that reason, if for no other reason.

But, again, this is very similar to discussions that were had in the 2020 election. There was the idea that Biden, running against a whole field of younger candidates in the Democratic primaries, was not going to be able to come through. Yet he outlasted that field of younger candidates. There was the idea that Biden would not be able to stand on the stage with Trump and hold his own in the presidential debates and 2020. Well Biden won the race, and I think he won the debates as well. So Biden’s been underestimated on this front for the last several years. 

But ultimately it comes down to: when there are public events, when there are convention speeches, when Biden is on the hustings, if there are debates, when there are public interviews, is Biden meeting the threshold that voters have for him? Those are the places where Biden has to show that he is up to the job. 

Because he’s President, Biden gets the most attention of anybody in the world. But Trump has really been in hiding for the better part of the last year or two; I don’t know whether that’s a legal strategy or political strategy. But at some point, Trump will have to come out of hiding and do more events and do some interviews, whether they’re debates or convention speeches, and all of that. And putting Trump side by side with Biden, I don’t know that there is that big of a difference between their vitality and vibrancy.

And as President Biden has said, this campaign is going to be prosecuted on the age of the ideas of both Biden and Trump, and not necessarily who’s a few years older than whom.

There are two other issues that might be vulnerabilities for Biden that I’d like to ask you about: immigration, and corruption related to his son Hunter’s businesses.

The border is a top concern, which is why you saw Biden continuing to try to show leadership to bring that issue to the forefront, to pass a bipartisan border security bill. Biden was prepared to sign it, Democrats were prepared to vote for it, and a lot of Republicans were prepared to vote for it. But the Republican leadership in Congress, specifically the Republican speaker and leadership in the House, refused to operate in good faith and be part of a bipartisan coalition to pass border security. So, yes, it’s a top issue. Yes, it’s something that a lot of voters are concerned about. But it’s also an issue on which Biden is able to say accurately that he’s ready to sign a bipartisan border bill tomorrow if he has a partner in Congress. 

Republicans in the last few weeks have dramatically weakened their hand on this issue by walking away from a bipartisan, tougher border bill. So Biden has a very clear story to tell about that.

Regarding the corruption questions: The more the Republicans have dug in there, the weaker their case has been shown to be. The Republicans have had all these investigations, all these stories, all these leaks, and there’s just not much there. 

Trump is the one, of course, who is under indictment and facing multiple corruption trials. I don’t think that this is an issue that Republicans even really want to engage on, as to who voters think has the most integrity, is the most personally honest and ethical. Biden wins that debate against Trump 10 times out of 10 with American voters. Every Democrat would be very pleased to have a comparison with Trump on that front.

There’s a vocal minority of progressive Democratic voters who voted “uncommitted” in some primary states, like Michigan and Minnesota, specifically because they are pro-Palestinian and feel that Biden is too pro-Israel. Do you think that will affect the election? And, switching over to policy for a moment, do you think that will actually affect Biden’s policy regarding the war?

We’ve seen in these primaries that the “uncommitted” voice is loud and has a big megaphone on social media — but a very small footprint in the actual electorate. Even in some of these low-turnout primaries, where you would expect that activists would have the ability to make their presence felt, the “uncommitted” effort has not shown much strength.

We live in a time of close elections, and this is going to be another close election. Biden needs the strongest, most solid base possible. For those voters, maybe not at the activist elite level, but in terms of the actual voters who do have some concerns and maybe some disagreements on the administration’s policy and prosecution of the war, the administration has several months to tell that story, and to have those conversations with those voters. 

But as for the saber-rattling that was coming from the elite activist level, from that “uncommitted” movement, that has largely been a dud. We live in a two-party system, where it’s all about putting together a coalition. Younger voters who have some qualms about what’s transpiring are a part of the Democratic base, and Biden will have the ability to get a hearing with those voters as well. But at the end of the day, American elections are mostly decided in the middle: who is doing a better job at communicating with a broad swath of middle-of-the-road voters, and who those voters think is going to help make life a little easier, a little more affordable for their family over the next few years. Elections almost never come down to who was more closely aligned with some pretty fringe, activist elite segments. 

In terms of Biden’s prosecution of the war: Biden has shown that he has principles here that he’s sticking to, and he’s not letting campaigns or American political debates dictate what he thinks is right and wrong as it relates to standing by our ally Israel.

So I don’t think there’s any evidence that Biden will do anything but handle our intersection with this conflict with what he thinks is right. He’s always been a steadfast ally of Israel and looking to be a positive player here, and, looking especially post-conflict, to a relationship that can be better for all sides. 

But Biden’s going to stick by his principles here and stick by our ally Israel, and I don’t think American political considerations are going to come into play.

Final question: Biden has been trailing in some polls lately. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll taken last month in seven swing states found him trailing in each of those states. What does Biden have to do in the next eight months to turn things around? 

It’s a pretty straightforward, two-pronged goal: One is to continue to show voters that he is up to the job and fully engaged, and whether he can meet the threshold and earn people’s trust regarding the concerns that people have about his age, which, again, are similar to the concerns that they had four years ago. 

And it is vital to show what he has done over the last three or four years to fight to hold down costs where possible, and what his plans are over the coming years to continue to drive down costs, continue to build a strong American economy, making it easier and more affordable for people to raise their families.

Also, as it relates to Trump, Biden has to make sure that voters understand that elections are not about a thumbs up/thumbs down on the incumbent, but they’re about choices between two candidates. 

Trump’s policies are part of what contributed to rising inflation. Trump has already talked about putting in dramatic new tax cuts for the wealthy as part of his agenda moving forward. Trump has shown a willingness to cut Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. And Trump, with his Supreme Court appointments, is the single person most responsible for the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which is a critical issue. President Biden’s prosecution of that case against Trump is probably the single most important facet of the election. 

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rborchardt@hamodia.com

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This interview originally appeared in Hamodia Prime magazine.