Ukraine Wins German Security Deal as Weapon Stocks Run Short

(Bloomberg News/TNS) — German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky signed a long-term security cooperation deal as Ukraine’s worsening artillery shortage threatens to force a further rationing of shells.

The agreement sealed Friday at the chancellery in Berlin — the first time Germany has taken on the role of a guarantor state — is designed to deter Russia from future aggression against its western neighbor after the current war ends.

Under an initiative launched by the Group of Seven nations last year, Zelensky agreed to a similar accord with the U.K. last month and will sign another with French President Emmanuel Macron later in Paris.

Scholz, who also announced a new package of air-defense and artillery systems for Ukraine worth about €1.1 billion ($1.2 billion), said the security accord and the latest military assistance send “a crystal clear message” to Russian President Vladimir Putin.

“We will not back down in our support for Ukraine,” the German leader told reporters. Zelensky said that Germany’s latest shipment of arms — particularly the artillery — would start to reach the front “very soon.”

“Unfortunately we have a tangible decline in supplies from partners and German support in this situation is vitally important for Ukraine and our soldiers,” he said. He called the deal with Germany one of the most powerful security commitments Kyiv has obtained so far.

Zelensky is on the first leg of his latest trip to shore up support for Ukraine’s defense against Russia’s invasion. After meeting with Macron in the French capital, he’ll then travel back to Germany for the Munich Security Conference, where he’ll hold a series of bilateral meetings with global leaders.

The agreement with Germany was signed as the news broke that Alexey Navalny, the Russian anti-corruption activist and vocal Putin opponent, had died in prison.

Zelensky and his military commanders have blamed the failure of last year’s counteroffensive on a dearth of sufficient materiel from Western allies.

Ukraine’s lack of artillery capability could become so critical in the next two to three months that the country may have to decide where to focus a narrower effort along the war front, according to people familiar with the matter.

That could open the door to Russian advances later this year. Ukraine is effectively already having to ration its artillery as allied ammunition supplies have fallen short. Bloomberg reported last month that Kyiv told its allies that it was facing a critical shortage and was outgunned by Russia three-to-one.

Additional U.S. assistance remains deadlocked in Congress amid a domestic fight over immigration and border policy. Although the U.S. Senate this week approved funding, the legislation faces considerable obstacles in the Republican-controlled House.

At the same time, former President Donald Trump is considering scaled-back commitments to some NATO members and pushing Ukraine to negotiate an end to the war if he returns to office after this year’s election.

Ukraine would need as much as double the military support from the European Union to bridge the gap if more U.S. assistance failed to materialize, according to estimates published Friday by Germany’s Kiel Institute.

Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren said the effort to keep sufficient supplies flowing to Ukraine is getting more difficult as “Russia has transitioned to war economy mode and they really scaled up their side of ammunition.”

“We’re very committed to give Ukraine all the ammunition it needs but need to start on the side of the production capacity,” Ollongren told reporters ahead of the Munich meeting.

“We have to do more,” she added. “We’re really trying everything and still it’s not enough.”