A new poll shows that if elections were held today, the Likud led by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would strengthen considerably, over its current representation in the Knesset and over other recent polls. In the new poll taken by the Geocartigrafia polling group on behalf of Channel Ten, the Likud would get 32 seats — eight more than the 24 it has in the current Knesset.
Previous polls have shown the Likud getting around 24 seats in new elections, but it appears that Likud voters were prepared to give Netanyahu their trust in light of the recent security unrest, and despite the alleged scandal on the acquisition of German submarines that has been in the news lately, pollsters said. As further proof that security was much on the mind of Israelis was the significant showing of Yisrael Beytenu, currently with six Knesset seats. The new poll shows the party getting nine seats if elections were held now, with previous polls showing it getting between five and seven seats.
Also significant in the poll is the rise of Labor/Zionist Camp — and the fall of Yair Lapid. The former has been polling on the border of single digits recently, but has strengthened significantly since the election of Avi Gabay as party leader. The new poll shows Labor/Zionist Camp with 18 seats, compared to 10 or 11 in recent polls. And those seats are coming directly from Yesh Atid; in recent polls, the party headed by Yair Lapid has been polling between 22 and 24 seats, but the new poll shows Yesh Atid getting just 17 in new elections.
Some of the Likud’s strength was coming from Jewish Home, and possibly Shas; both parties were polling at lower numbers than in previous polls. Recent polls have shown the former getting about 13 seats, but the new poll has Jewish Home getting just nine — still one more than the party currently has in the Knesset. Shas, meanwhile, drops to five seats from its current seven. United Torah Judaism would get nine seats, Meretz five, and the United Arab List would fall from its current 13 seats to 10 in the next Knesset — with some of their votes apparently siphoning off to Labor/Zionist Camp.