The results of the March 2 elections could depend on how many loyalists each party gets out to the polls – because there is less interest in this election among Israelis than the previous two. Only 62% of voters said they were “positive” that they would bother to vote on Election Day, while 24% said that they were “very positive” that they would do so.
The percentage of likely voters was highest among those who consider themselves secular. Of that group, 71% said they would vote. 61% of Religious Zionist voters said they would come out to the polls, followed closely by traditional voters, 60% of whom said they would vote. Among chareidi voters, the figure was 57%, while Arabs, with 51% responding that they would definitely vote, had the lowest most-likely-to-vote percentage.
Among party loyalists, 85% of Labor-Meretz-Gesher voters said they would be at the polls, followed by Shas voters, 78% of whom said they would so as well. 76% of United Torah Jewry voters said they would appear at the polls on Election Day.
The figure for Blue and White and Otzma Yehudit voters was 75%, while 65% of Likud voters said they would vote, as did 63% of Yisrael Beytenu voters.
Least likely were United Arab List supporters, 59% of whom said they would vote, and Yemina supporters, only half of whom are sure they would be going to the polls March 2.
With that, Binyamin Netanyahu is still by far the preferred candidate for prime minister, supported by 45% of the electorate. Only 35% said they preferred Benny Gantz, while, with less than two weeks before the election, 20% said they weren’t sure.
The poll, taken by the Maagar Hamochot polling group and appearing in Yisrael Hayom Friday, has Blue and White with 36 seats, with the Likud getting 33. The United Arab List would get 13, and Shas, Yamina and Labor-Meretz-Gesher each get 8. United Torah Judaism and Yisrael Beytenu would get 7 each. The right-wing bloc would get 56 seats. To form a government, Gantz would have to recruit both the United Arab List and Yisrael Beytenu, assuming the right-wing bloc remains intact.