Economy Grew at 5 Percent Annual Rate in Third Quarter, Best Since 2003

The U.S. economy grew at its fastest pace in more than a decade during the third quarter, a significant increase over earlier estimates that was triggered by stronger consumer spending, the Commerce Department said Tuesday.

Total economic output, also known as gross domestic product, increased at a 5 percent annual rate from July through September. That was a major jump from an estimate last month of 3.9 percent.

The big rise in the final revision of the data surprised economists, who had forecast the figure to be 4.3 percent.

The last time the economy grew faster was in the third quarter of 2003, when growth was at a 6.9 percent annual rate.

The economy grew at a 4.6 percent annual rate in the second quarter of this year.

With the fourth-quarter data, it was the best six-month stretch of economic expansion since 2003.

“This is literally shoot-the-lights-out sort of stuff,” said Chris Rupkey, chief financial economist at Union Bank in New York.

Rupkey stressed there were “no smoke and mirrors” in the data, which were powered by consumers.

Consumer spending increased 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter, much better than initially estimated and up from 2.5 percent in the previous quarter.

Federal-government spending rose 9.9 percent, after a 0.9 percent drop in the second quarter.

Business investment was strong, rising 8.9 percent in the third quarter, though that was down from 9.7 percent in the second quarter.

Despite the boom from spring through fall, a weak first quarter has dragged down overall annual growth this year to less than 3 percent.

The economy contracted 2.1 percent from January through March, which economists attributed to severe weather in much of the country.

The government won’t release its first estimate of fourth-quarter growth until next month, and economists expect it to show a drop-off from the third quarter.

In a sign of that, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday that orders for long-lasting durable goods fell 0.7 percent in November.

It was the third time in four months that the figure, a closely watched indicator of growth, has fallen.

This article appeared in print in the December 24th, 2014 edition of Hamodia.