Syrian Rebels Set Their Sights on Strategic South

Syrian rebels captured a military base in the south on Wednesday and set their sights on seizing control of a strategically important region along the border with Jordan that would give them a critical gateway to attempt an attack on the capital, Damascus.

With foreign aid and training of rebels in Jordan ramping up, the opposition fighters have regained momentum in their fight to topple President Bashar Assad.

But while the fall of southern Syria would facilitate the rebel push for Damascus, it might also create dangerous complications, potentially drawing Syria’s neighbors into the 2-year-old civil war. Besides abutting Jordan, the region includes territory that borders Syria’s side of the Golan Heights, along a sensitive frontier with Israel.

“This is a sensitive triangle we are talking about,” said Hisham Jaber, a retired Lebanese army general who heads the Middle East Center for Studies and Political Research in Beirut. “The fall of Daraa,  may usher in strategic changes in the area.”

For the rebels, control of the south is key to their advance toward Damascus. Dozens of fighting brigades have carved up footholds in areas to the east and south of the capital, where they fire off mortar shells on the heavily guarded city.

The significance of their gains in the south was on display Wednesday when the rebels stormed a military base after a five-day siege.

“Damascus will be liberated from here, from Daraa, from the south,” declared an armed fighter, a rifle slung over his shoulder and a kaffiyeh tied around his face. Videos posted online by activists showed him and other unidentified rebels celebrating inside the Syrian army’s 49th battalion in the village of Alma, on the outskirts of Daraa.

The capture of the base is the latest advance by opposition fighters near the strategic border with Jordan. Last month, opposition fighters seized Dael, one of the province’s bigger towns, and overran another air defense base in the region.

Opposition fighters battling Assad’s troops have been chipping away at the regime’s hold on the southern part of the country in recent weeks with the help of an influx of foreign-funded weapons.

Their aim is to secure a corridor from the Jordanian border to Damascus in preparation for an eventual assault on the capital. And they have made major progress along the way. Activists say several towns and villages along the Daraa-Damascus route are now in rebel hands.

A Western diplomat who monitors Syria from his base in Jordan said the fall of Daraa appeared imminent, possibly in the next few days or weeks. His assessment was based on classified intelligence information, he said, speaking on condition of anonymity in order not to hamper his intelligence-gathering efforts.

Daraa’s fall could unleash lawlessness on Jordan’s northern border and send jitters across the kingdom, a key U.S. ally that fears Islamic extremist groups on its doorstep.

Also of grave concern are rebel advances  near the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights.

“If Daraa falls, the rebels will come face-to-face with the Israeli army in the Golan,” said Hilal Khashan, a political science professor at the American University of Beirut.

Daraa province separates Damascus from the Golan Heights, which Israel captured in 1967 and annexed in 1981. In recent weeks, Israel has seen Syrian mortar rounds and bullets land in Israeli territory and tanks enter a demilitarized zone in the Golan Heights. Israeli security officials believe the incidents have been inadvertent but have threatened to retaliate.

In addition to complications arising from rebels controlling the frontiers with Israel and Jordan, the fall of Daraa may drag in members of Syria’s minority Druse community who live in the southern province of Sweida, Khashan said.

Like other minorities in Syria, they have so far remained largely on the sidelines of the uprising, but that could change if they feel threatened by the Islamic rebels.

Rebel gains coincided with what regional officials and military experts say is a sharp increase in weapons shipments to opposition fighters by Arab governments, in coordination with the U.S., in the hopes of readying a push into Damascus.

Thousands of fighters have entered Daraa in recent weeks, said Jaber, adding that rebels capitalizing on new weapons aim to use Daraa as a launch pad for reaching Damascus. Still, he and other analysts said the fall of Daraa would not change the balance of power unless the rebels acquire more advanced weapons.

More importantly, the rebels would also need to cut off the roads linking Damascus to the central province of Homs and from there to the Syrian coast.

Many observers believe Assad, as a last resort, would carve out a breakaway enclave for himself and his fellow Alawites in their historic heartland in towns and villages of Syria’s mountainous coast, from which they would fight for survival against the Sunni majority battling to topple him.

This article appeared in print on page D9 of the April 4th, 2013 edition of Hamodia.