Could New York Elect a Republican Governor?

By Dov Katzenstein

New York Governor Kathy Hochul assumed she could cruise to victory and remain focused on state business rather than campaigning. In a state dominated by Democrats, with a leftward lean deeply entrenched over the Trump Presidency, few argued with her approach. For most of the campaign, polls that put Mrs. Hochul ahead by double digits back up what looked like a yet another non-election for a New York Democratic governor.

Yet, with two weeks until Election Day, nearly all polls have Republican challenger, Long Island Congressman Lee Zeldin, within striking distance, sending the Governor back to the campaign trail and attempting to alter her message.

A Siena College poll showed Mrs. Hochul with an 11-point lead, down from 17, last month. Quinnipiac University’s poll had Mr. Zeldin in striking distance, only four points behind, SurveyUSA has him behind by 6 points. One poll by the less recognized independent co/efficient survey showed a neck and neck race with Mr. Zeldin .3 ahead.

The sum total of these and other polls tend to show Mrs. Hochul as the favorite, but with the trend clearly against her as elections near. The shifts were enough for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics to change their rating on the race from “safe Democratic” to “likely Democratic,” a significant warning shot to the Governor in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans two to one.

Much of Mrs. Hochul’s campaign focused on attacking Mr. Zeldin’s pro-life position. Her move followed a strategy pursued by Democrats around the country which used the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision as a rallying call to its base. The tactic has born positive results in many races, turning an election cycle many predicted would be a red wave into a far more competitive match.

Mr. Zeldin indeed has a solid pro-life record, but as he pointed out in an ad, given the supermajority Democrats hold in the state legislature he would “not change, and could not change” the state’s laws.
The Hochul campaign is correct that Mr. Zeldin’s stance is out of step with the majority of New Yorkers, but they miscalculated the issue’s importance to voters in the state, with polls showing it ranking relatively low.

The issue that wins the top slot in most of the same polls is crime, a subject Mr. Zeldin has attempted to almost exclusively focus on in his campaign. His targets, a series of moves the state made in step with progressive policing polices and a broader crisis of law enforcement feeling unsupported by the state’s Democratic governing establishment.

“I just announced a couple days ago that as soon as I am sworn into office I’m going to be declaring a crime emergency here in the state of New York, I’m going to suspend New York’s cashless bail laws and some other pro-criminal laws that have been passed, force the legislature to come to the table to negotiate an improvement because we have to take back our streets,” Mr. Zeldin told a Fox News interviewer.

Mr. Zeldin’s ads focused largely on crime and press conferences at the scenes of violent crimes on New York City streets and subways are a mainstay pushing his message that Democrats in Albany have allowed crime to swirl out of control.

“There is rising crime on our streets and in our subways, and people who are in charge right now in Albany actually feel like they haven’t passed enough pro-criminal laws,” he said after a recent crime scene press conference.

The facts bear Mr. Zeldin out. In the wake of anti-police rioting over the death of George Floyd, murder and other crimes skyrocketed in the city to levels not seen since the early 1990s. This year, shootings have dropped 14%, but major crimes in the city are up 31%. Violent attacks in the New York City subway system, many of which have been random attacks committed by homeless people and repeat offenders on the streets as a result of the state’s bail reform laws, are up 40% compared to last year.

The trend predates Mrs. Hochul’s term, which began after former Governor Andrew Cuomo’s resignation. Still, she is easily linked with what many see as a direct connection between a huge spike in violent crime and progressive law enforcement policies put in place by legislators from her party.

In recent weeks, the Hochul campaign has attempted to show the Governor as focused on crime and successful in her efforts to fight it since taking office.
“You deserve to feel safe, and as your governor, I won’t stop working until you do,” she said in an ad that ran in the city.

At a recent joint press conference with New York City Mayor Eric Adams, who won the Democratic primary last year largely on an anti-crime message, Mrs. Hochul announced a plan to add 1,200 more transit police on shifts in the subway system. A recent Wall Street Journal editorial pointed out that the move is significant given that the present number of transit police is 4,000, but that the plan would likely be unsustainable as it draws largely on overtime hours. The Journal cynically pondered if the boost was just enough to get through elections on November 8.

One of the Hochul campaign’s focuses that has only increased are its attempts to link Mr. Zeldin to former President Donald Trump, who is deeply unpopular among a majority of New York voters. A recent Democratic mailer showed pictures of the two together captioned, “Best Friends Forever.”

Mr. Zeldin was outspokenly supportive of Mr. Trump during his presidency and voted against certifying the results of the 2020 elections in several states. While he steered clear of “stolen election” rhetoric, revelations that he text-messaged former White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows with suggestions of how the Trump team could discredit voting tallies gave Democrats much fodder.
The Congressman has struggled to sideline his connection to the former President and his campaign ignored Mr. Trump’s recent endorsement.

Mr. Zeldin, who is in his fourth term in a Republican-leaning district, bested two primary challengers, Andrew Giuliani, who presented himself as a proud Trumpian, and Robert Astrino, who was the GOP candidate in 2014, a more typical New York-style moderate Republican.

Despite Mr. Zeldin’s pro-life record and Democratic attempts to paint him as out of step with the New York’s electorate, he is not a stalwart social conservative.

At the same time, Mr. Zeldin stands out as a new type of New York Republican in his willingness to back the party line, at times over what is widely perceived as the state’s interests. He voted against Congress’ bipartisan infrastructure bill last year, despite billions that it funneled to the state for improvements to roads, bridges, and the like. His candidacy represents a delicate balancing act in which Mr. Zeldin works hard to keep the support of populist-style voters, who tend to agree with saying “no” to all things Democrat, while remaining focused on crime, inflation, taxes, and other non-ideological quality of life issues to attract independents and frustrated Democrats.

Republicans have long been at a disadvantage in the state, whose elections are usually dominated by the left-leaning city and its surrounding areas. Yet, at times of frustration with unchecked Democratic leadership, Republicans have seen success like in 1995, when George Pataki bested Mario Cuomo, and reelected him in 2002. It was also during the 1990s that the disastrous Mayoralty of David Dinkins ended with Rudy Giuliani replacing him in City Hall. Yet, since Mr. Pataki left office in 2006, Democrats have glided to victory for the governorship by double digits.

While some of those frustrations of the 1990s are reminiscent of the present contest, the terrain has become steeper for New York Republicans. Not only have they significantly lost party members in the state, past polling and elections shows that many independent-minded Democrats who were once swing voters have been replaced by solidly left-leaning progressives. This trend is especially true in New York City. Republican strategists determine that Mr. Zeldin can still win the governors’ seat as long as he gets 30% of the city’s votes, with the rest of his support coming from the mix of moderate and Republican-leaning areas in the state’s suburban and rural areas.

Mrs. Hochul’s candidacy also contains novel elements. A life-time Democratic Party operative who served a brief stint in Congress was never much paid attention to as Mr. Cuomo’s Lieutenant Governor, until she found herself in power after her former boss was brought down by scandal. She spent most of her career as a moderate with a pro-gun rights record, reflective of the Buffalo area from which she hails. Yet, upon taking stateside office and more so since moving into the Governor’s mansion, she has shifted solidly left on nearly all issues in keeping with the winds of power in the state’s Democratic Party. Her moves successfully fended off primary challengers.

In addition to the voter roll advantage that Mrs. Hochul holds, she can outspend Mr. Zeldin as well with a war-chest of $10.9 compared to her opponent’s, $4.5.

In his effort to pick-up Republican-leaning constituencies in the state, Mr. Zeldin has been attentive to New York’s Orthodox community, making several campaign stops in its hubs and giving interviews to its media outlets, including Hamodia. After New York’s Education Department (NYSED) released its standards on “substantial equivalency” for non-public schools, he voiced strong support for the independence of yeshivos and other private schools.

Mrs. Hochul has attended some Orthodox community events, but not made the constituency a focus and gave no interviews to any Orthodox publications. In recent days, however, she made several off-the-record visits to communal leaders. On the “substantial equivalency” issues, the Governor avoided taking a position, saying accurately that it is in NYSED’s purview, and not that of the governor.

While Mr. Zeldin is largely focused on crime, national trends aid his campaign as well. While there is little in the New York Governor’s authority that can affect inflationary trends, high prices associated with the Biden administration’s polices have hurt Mrs. Hochul. The normal anti-incumbent trend of a mid-term election is likely adding some wind to Mr. Zeldin’s sails as well.

Even as Mrs. Hochul’s victory remains likely, Democratic strategists worry that a tight race could hurt other down-ticket Democrats in the state, especially in three highly competitive congressional races.
While Mr. Zeldin’s campaign is still an uphill climb, even many in Mrs. Hochul’s party admit that trends warn not to count him out.

“New Yorkers in cities are very, very frustrated by several years of a visible and palpable spike in crime and erosion in quality of life,” Democratic strategist Jon Reinish told the Associated Press. “There are voters on the table who would normally be off the table.”