Questions About a New Normal

coronavirus vaccine
Dr. Naor Bar-Zeev

As the coronavirus outbreak continues to take a toll on nearly all aspects of daily life and new health concerns arise, Hamodia spoke with Dr. Naor Bar-Zeev, a pediatric infectious diseases physician and associate professor at Johns Hopkins Global Disease Epidemiology and Control program, to answer some common questions.

Many people have a feeling that the outbreak has hit Jewish communities in the New York area, but that it has now passed and it is time to return to more of the life we were used to. How accurate is this assumption?

It’s true that the New York area is slowly succeeding in flattening the curve, but there are still hundreds of new cases, hospitalizations and deaths each day. The rate of increase in total cases is slowing, but cases are still occurring. Still, this slowing is a major success and is a direct result of widespread adherence to physical distancing. Once we relax physical distancing, we will see more of a spread again. COVID-19 hit the Jewish community very hard and fast and now it might feel as though the outbreak has peaked and passed, but it is important to remember our neighboring communities, especially African American and Hispanic communities, are suffering with higher mortality and are going through their own peak. Despite the Jewish community’s sense of uniqueness, at least in this regard we are part of and contribute to the chain of transmission among all humans.

There is another flaw in thinking the worst is over and that we can return to normal, and that is the assumption that once enough people have been infected, that the community becomes immune. People feel that after so many people were sick, and many even passed away, it must be that most of the community had it already. But the limited testing that has so far been done suggests that it is still only a minority of the population that have developed antibodies. In order to have the type of so-called herd immunity that such assumptions are based on, it would require a very high level of infection, something like 95 percent for a very infectious disease or at least 65 percent for one that is less contagious. We are nowhere near that, and we don’t want to be because it would come at a massive human cost.

Many who already had COVID-19 feel less of a need to take precautions. Is this based on medical facts?

No. Antibodies likely provide some protection in the interim, but even those who have had it need to be very careful because we still do not know to what degree they give immunity or how long that immunity will last.

Do you see safe ways to responsibly re-open shuls and re-commence some of its normal interactions over the coming months as the virus hopefully continues to recede?

COVID-19 is something that we are going to have in our lives for the foreseeable future absent a vaccine, and that means that complete normalcy is not in the cards. That’s very disheartening especially to us as Jews whose sense of identity is heavily based on tefillah b’tzibbur and learning in batei medrash, but it’s a reality. And v’nishmartem meod le’nafshosechem is also an important part of Yiddishkeit.

In terms of shuls, I want to make it clear that we are only discussing a time when government officials have deemed it safe and legal to open houses of worship. The regulations now in place, while challenging for our community, are being made for our own health and take into consideration the best information available from the medical world.

The key to any plans is to ensure strict adherence to physical distancing between people, so seating and how Krias HaTorah should work need to be dealt with. Wearing masks, washing hands with soap both before and after davening, making sure there is proper ventilation by opening windows, and reducing contact with surfaces are valuable steps as well. Even if shuls can reopen, those who are in high-risk categories or live with someone who is should seek rabbinic guidance about not attending shul at all.

If there are ways to reduce the amount of time people spend at a tefillah, that would lower the risk level, but how to do that appropriately is a question for Rabbanim.

What about other gatherings such as simchos that may be more difficult to regulate?

It’s important for people to realize that the behavior of each individual affects the entire population. Let’s say a person decides to make a shalom zachar and he’s careful that only his young healthy friends attend. We know that there are still cases out there and that infection is happening from presymptomatic and, to a degree, also from asymptomatic people. So, if you do this again and again, it exacerbates transmission. One of the people at that shalom zachar is likely to give it to two or three others… One of them goes shopping and an older lady that was in line after him at the supermarket could end up hospitalized or, lo aleinu, niftar a few days later.

If you look at this outbreak as a forest fire, we are neither the arsonist nor the firefighters, we are the trees. Only Hashem Yisborach can put out the fire, but in the meantime, we have an obligation to do what we can to give the blaze as little fuel as possible. The fire is far from out, and unexpected winds will drive up the flames again.

Interventions like convalescent plasma ,to which the frum community has made a remarkable contribution, is much appreciated and well celebrated in scientific and public health circles; newly emerging medications and then hopefully a vaccine will all help. But the immediate day to day behavior of each and every one of us will make a huge difference.

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