Polls Mixed After NY Governor Debate

By Matis Glenn


With one week to go until election day, two polls show Gov. Kathy Hochul with solid, but single-digit leads over Rep. Lee Zeldin, and another two depict a race in a dead heat.

A Trafalgar Group poll released Tuesday showed the Long Island congressman edging out the incumbent governor by under one percent. Trafalgar, a Republican-funded pollster with an A- grade on election analyst site FiveThirtyEight, previously placed Zeldin three points behind Hochul in early October.

In October’s poll, 9.7 percent of voters were undecided; that number has dwindled down to four percent, signaling a significant shift in the race in Zeldin’s favor. Trafalgar’s poll is the second time in recent polls that the conservative Republican has overtaken Hochul; a poll published by Co/efficient on October 21 placed Zeldin marginally above the incumbent governor.

Emerson College, together with The Hill, also released a poll on Tuesday, showing Hochul ahead by eight points; 52 percent to 44 percent. A previous Emerson poll, conducted a few days before the debate, showed Hochul ahead six points.

Politico reports that on Sunday, KA Consultants published a poll on behalf of the right-wing Citizens United group, showing Hochul edging out Zeldin by one percent.

In the KA poll, Zeldin leads Hochul among Independent voters with 61 percent of the vote, while 26 percent support Hochul.

Zeldin is ahead in his hometown of Long Island by four percent, and in Upstate/Hudson Valley by 13 percent. Zeldin received 34 percent support in New York City.

In the race for Attorney General, Letitia James leads Republican challenger Michael Henry by six points, with eight percent undecided.

Another poll that was taken after the debate was conducted by Slingshot Strategies, a Democrat-leaning pollster which ran the poll independently. That poll placed Zeldin six points behind Hochul.

Data analysts at RealClearPolitics called the race a toss-up on October 17, while FiveThirtyEight maintains that Hochul has a 96 percent chance of winning the election.

On Sunday, Mayor Eric Adams campaigned alongside Hochul in Southeast Queens. The Governor spoke to about 200 supporters at Rochdale Village Shopping Center, urging voters to “Tell them you want someone who cares about getting more guns off the streets, someone who respects women’s rights…”

Zeldin made campaign stops in Brooklyn Jewish communities on Sunday, and visited the Monsey Jewish community on Tuesday. He has recently garnered the endorsements of many rabbonim and Jewish community organizations, having expressed support for yeshiva education amid regulations approved last month by the Board of Regents which grant the government the ability to mandate curriculum in private schools. Hochul has said that it is not within the purview of the governor to decide the issue, while Zeldin says that the position carries enough influence to make a difference.

Hochul, criticized by many in the Jewish community for not taking a definitive stance on the issue of yeshiva education.

“The war that’s been declared on yeshiva education has to end,” Zeldin told Hamodia on Tuesday in Monsey. “Once again the community here will have a true friend as governor. I look forward to January 1, working with everybody to reverse the attacks on education and other aspects of life. This is something that started decades before I was even alive, within my family…this is as personal as it gets, and I’m excited to do my part.”

Underscoring how tight the race is in a state which is known as reliably Democratic, former President Barack Obama threw his support behind Hochul on Friday, saying in a radio message that “My friend, Governor Kathy Hochul, is the best person for the job — hands down.”

Zeldin is backed by former President Donald Trump, who prior to his official endorsement, had participated in fundraisers for the Zeldin campaign.

Early voting is already underway, and continues until November 6. Election day is November 8.


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