Poll Shows Virtual Ties in NY Gubernatorial, AG Races

By Matis Glenn and Reuvain Borchardt

NEW YORK — A new poll by Trafalgar Group shows Republican gubernatorial challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin and attorney general challenger Michael Henry in statistical ties with incumbent Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitia James, respectively.

The poll released Thursday shows Zeldin trailing Hochul by under 2 percentage points — within the poll’s 2.9 percent margin of error. Of 1,087 people surveyed, 44.5 percent said they would vote for Hochul, and 42.6 preferred Zeldin.

Previous polls have showed Trump-backed Zeldin behind by double digits. According to a Sienna College poll last month, Zeldin was behind by 17 points; in July, the same poll showed Hochul ahead by 14. Emerson polls taken in September and July showed Hochul ahead 15 and 16 points, respectively. A SurveyUSA/New York Times poll taken in August showed the incumbent ahead by 24 points.

But the Trafalgar group, together with Insider Advantage, released a poll in August which had Zeldin behind by only 4 points. Recent internal polling from the Zeldin campaign showed him behind Hochul by under 6 points.

“Losing is not an option,” Zeldin said in a statement Thursday. “New Yorkers throughout the state are sick and tired of the attacks on our wallets, safety, freedom and kids’ education. They’re fed up with the direction of Kathy Hochul’s New York and her rampant pay to play corruption. Crime Wave Kathy is driving New York right off a cliff.”

Hochul’s campaign declined to comment on the poll.

Thursday’s Trafalgar poll also shows a close race for attorney general, with Republican challenger Michael Henry leading incumbent Democrat Letitia James 45.4 to 44.4 percent.

A James spokeswoman dismissed the poll, noting Trafalgar had not released the crosstabs — a detailed breakdown of poll results by participants’ geography and ethnicity.

“This isn’t a poll, it’s two numbers on a page” said James campaign manager Yvette Buckner.

Hamodia has requested the crosstabs from Trafalgar.

Any statewide win by a Republican would be considered an upset, as no Republican has won statewide office since Gov. George Pataki won reelection in 2002. Democrats are considered more vulnerable than usual this year due to a crime surge that critics have blamed on Democrat-backed bail reform; and national anxiety over inflation.

According to polling analysts at FiveThirtyEight, the Trafalgar group has an “A-” rating, despite describing Trafalgar as a “partisan group funded by Republicans.” The same grade was given to Emerson, while Sienna is rated “A.”

Click HERE to read Hamodia’s interview with Lee Zeldin.

Hochul has not granted Hamodia an interview despite many requests.

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mglenn@hamodia.com

rborchardt@hamodia.com