First Polls Predict Netanyahu Bloc Still Short of a Majority

By Hamodia Staff

Opposition leader Binyamin Netanyahu with Shas leader Rabbi Aryeh Deri (center) and Religious Zionism party chairman Betzalel Smotrich.
(Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90)

YERUSHALAYIM – Israeli news networks had their first predictive say in what the new elections hold in store, and the results were not encouraging.

Despite minor differences, polls released by Channels 11, 12 and 13 all agreed that if elections were held today, the political deadlock that prevailed a year ago would prevail again. Neither the Likud-led bloc of right-wing and religious parties, nor the center-left anti-Netanyahu bloc currently in power, would be able to amass a majority in the Knesset.

The Channel 11 and 12 polls gauged the latter at 59 seats in the 120-seat Knesset, while Channel 13’s survey had them at 60. That figure evinced an upward trajectory, from its current 52, and putting it just one or two MKs short of a ruling majority, similar to results published before Bennett and Lapid announced the government’s end on Monday.

All three showed the Likud maintaining its position as the largest party, with 35 or 36 seats.

The Yesh Atid party led by Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, who is slated to become interim prime minister as early as next week, would receive between 20 and 22 seats, building significantly on its current 17.

The religious parties were seen doing well, especially Religious Zionism with 9, followed closely by Shas with 8, and United Torah Judaism at 7.

On the coalition side, Gantz’s Blue and White got 7, Labor 5, Yamina 4.

The left-wing Meretz will fail to pass the 3.25 percent electoral threshold, according to Channel 13, but barely clearing it according to Channels 11 and 12.

Outgoing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s Yamina party would receive 4 -5 seats, with Channel 12 predicting that its supporters would turn to center and center-left parties if Bennett sits out the race.

The Joint Arab List, aligned with neither bloc, would have 6. The Islamist Ra’am party is expected to remain steady at 4 seats, the polls indicated.

Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar’s New Hope party, which has not crossed the threshold in a number of recent polls, is predicted to barely bridge the 3.25% minimum, according to all three polls.

The networks also asked respondents who they felt was most suited to serve as prime minister. Forty-seven percent of respondents said Netanyahu, 31% said Lapid, 18% said they didn’t know and four percent said none of the above. That’s a 6% improvement for Lapid since the last time Channel 12 asked that question several days ago — before it was revealed that he would be replacing Bennett as premier in the coming days.

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