Covid Cases are Up, Hospitalization Data Trending Down

By Matis Glenn

This week saw a rise in Covid cases nationwide, raising questions about the trajectory of the pandemic in the US. The CDC says that the CDC says that the new, prevalent BA.2 subvariant is responsible for 72.2% of new cases, with some estimates even higher.

Data suggests that BA.2 is even more contagious than the already highly transmissible Omicron variant, though there are no indications that it causes more serious disease than its parent pathogen. While current COVID data shows an increase of cases, there is a starkly downward trend in hospitalizations.

In mid-March, there were 20,190 Americans hospitalized with COVID according to, and that has steadily decreased to less than half that amount — 9,816 — as of April 8^th. Likewise, the CDC reports that about 2,300 people were hospitalized per day in mid-March, and is down significantly to 1,394 per day.

Many states are seeing a rise in cases, but a drop in hospitalizations. In New Jersey, cases are up 76% per 100,000 according to Reuters, but hospitalizations are down from 464 to 343, with new daily admittance remaining the same.

Another example of this phenomenon is Florida, which according to the same news outlet is seeing an increase in daily cases of 12%, yet hospitalizations are steadily trending downward, from 1,304 to 682, with daily admittance standing at 94, down from 168.

In New York City, the New York Times Covid tracker indicates an increase of 40% in cases, with a 17% drop in hospitalizations as of last week.

According to the Tampa Bay Times, cases in Florida increased by 12%, and hospitalizations decreased by 8%.

Reuters reports that In California, cases are up 25% per 100,000, and hospitalizations were decreased by 14%. Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Georgia, Washington, Colorado, Kansas, and many other states saw dramatic downward changes in hospitalizations too.

“I think we’re going to be seeing an uptick of cases that we are already seeing in certain states,” Dr. Anthony Fauci told NPR. “You know, we had a very sharp and steady decline in everything from cases to hospitalizations to deaths. And in general, on a countrywide basis, we’re still seeing that. But there are some areas, counties and regions, particularly in the northeast and here in Washington, D.C., where we are seeing a turnaround and an uptick in cases.”

“Right now we’re watching it very, very carefully,” Fauci said. “And there is concern that it’s going up. But hopefully we’re not going to see increased severity.”

National daily death rate averages were at an 8-month low on April 8^th, at 554, according to CDC data. That has increased to 570 on April 11^th, but it is still 28% lower than it was two weeks ago.

“This is not going to be eradicated, and it’s not going to be eliminated,” Dr Anthony Fauci told ABC News on Sunday, April 10^th. “And what’s going to happen is that we’re going to see that each individual is going to have to make their calculation of the amount of risk that they want to take”.

Ali Mokdad, a professor of health metrics at University of Washington led a study for the Associated Press that determined that 73% of United States citizens have a significant level of immunity for Covid.

“We have changed,” Mokdad told Associated Press, “We have been exposed to this virus and we know how to deal with it. I am optimistic even if we have a surge in summer, cases will go up, but hospitalizations and deaths will not,”. Immunity due to a number of contributing factors, including prior recovery and vaccination, was taken into account during the study.