Health Official: Without Vaccines, Israel Would See Nearly 30,000 COVID Deaths

Israel’s COVID vaccination campaign has saved the lives of at least 20,000 Israelis, and if it weren’t for the vaccines, the country’s COVID death toll could have climbed as high as 30,000, as opposed to the 8,371 deaths from COVID since the pandemic first hit the country in early 2020, an analysis of data Deputy Health Ministry Professor Itamar Grotto conducted for Israel Hayom reveals.

The data Grotto worked with were based on an analysis by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

Grotto’s estimate is a cautious once, since it applies only to Israelis age 60 and over. According to Grotto, vaccines have also saved the lives of several thousand more residents under age 60.

According to Health Ministry figures, from the time Israel began the vaccinations on Dec. 19, 2020 to Jan. 22, 2022, about 6.7 million Israelis have received one dose of the vaccine, some 6 million have received both doses, and approximately 4.4 million have received both doses plus booster shots. Another 600,000 Israelis have received a second booster shot.

The figures also indicate that an unvaccinated Israeli is eight times as likely to die from COVID-19 as a vaccinated compatriot, and that vaccinated citizens were far better off during the omicron variant wave, being five times less likely to die of the illness than the unvaccinated.

Grotto, an expert in public health and epidemiology who lectures at Ben-Gurion University of the Negev told Israel Hayom that “Some sectors of the public and some experts are now looking at the omicron wave and claiming that its proof that this is a minor illness, ‘like the flu,’ but that’s a ridiculous mistake, since it doesn’t take into account the vaccines’ important effect, which is to prevent serious illness and deaths to a large extent, even in the omicron wave.”

Grotto explained that an analysis by the ECDC published in November 2021 looked at the COVID deaths among people age 60 and over that were prevented due to vaccinations in countries that are part of the WHO’s European region, which include Israel. The analysis looked at this age group, since 90% of COVID deaths occur is people age 60 and over. The research, published on the Eurosurveillance site, hypothesized that a single vaccine dose prevented 60% of deaths and two doses prevented up to 95% of deaths.

According to Grotto, the study indicates that in the period from Dec. 2020, when vaccination campaigns launched in Israel and elsewhere, to Nov. 2021, Israel was ranked third in the number of deaths prevented by the vaccine, with an estimated 15,662 deaths from COVID in Israel having been prevented in that time. In those 11 months, 3,972 people over 60 in Israel died of COVID, and if it hadn’t been for the vaccines, 19,634 would have died.

“The researchers concluded that since the start of vaccinations in Europe, the vaccines have saved many elderly people’s lives, and that early and full vaccination of the elderly was a factor in the sharp decline in the number of predicted deaths. The reasons why Israel is ranked third in Europe has to do with the rapid rollout of vaccines in Israel and our broad coverage of people age 60 and up,” Grotto said.

Professor Galia Rahav, director of the Infectious Disease Department at Sheba Medical Center at Tel Hashomer, told Israel Hayom that “the vaccines ended the third wave of COVID and saved many Israelis’ lives. Thus far, the vaccines have prevented a lot of morbidity and mortality, and in the fourth wave, the booster also prevented a lot of deaths and new infections.”

Rahav pointed out that in the omicron wave, it is possible to see “a drop in the curve of new confirmed cases in people with the second booster, and we also see that serious cases are more prominent in those who have not received the fourth shot. There is no doubt that the vaccine prevents hospitalizations, serious illness, and death, and is very successful in doing so. Vaccines are the most important medical intervention in the history of medicine and humanity, and along with hygiene practices and sanitation such as modern sewage systems, have saved billions of people from death, disability, and serious illness.”

As of Motzoei Shabbos, there were 442,229 active or symptomatic COVID cases in Israel, with 1,967 COVID patients hospitalized. Of the hospitalized patients, 732 were in serious condition, including 208 who were listed in critical condition. A total of 146 hospitalized patients were on ventilators and 16 were attached to ECMO machines.

The percentage of COVID tests processed on Shabbos that came back positive was 20.61%.