Poll Shows Right-Wing Government Likely If Fourth Elections

israeli elections
Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu speaking at a press conference about the coronavirus, at the Prime Minister’s office in Yerushalayim last month. (Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90)

Blue and White and the Likud have yet to come to a coalition deal, and the possibility of fourth elections is not past. And if there are fourth elections, a Maariv poll shows, the Likud and right-wing parties will finally be able to form a solid right-wing government, without the help of other groups.

Negotiations between the two parties are stalled over the issue of chairmanship of the Judicial Selection Committee. According to Blue and White, the Likud had agreed to its conditions that the committee operate as it has in the past, but Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has reneged on that and is insisting on changes. That insistence comes based on objections by Yemina, which is demanding that the judicial-selection process be significantly altered. Sources in Blue and White told Kan News that it was now up to Netanyahu to either accept the original agreement or go to elections.

If it is the latter, Netanyahu will lead a party that is likely to get 42 Knesset seats, the poll by the Rafi Smith organization said. That would be as many seats as the party ever got, matching the number the party attained under the leadership of former Prime Minister Yitzchak Shamir.

With the agreement by Blue and White head Benny Gantz to enter a coalition deal with Netanyahu, the party, which consisted of four factions, broke apart. Running independently, Gantz’s faction, now separately called Blue and White, would get 18 seats, while Blue and White’s former co-leader, Yair Lapid, would get just 9 seats leading his Yesh Atid party.

Other parties would fare pretty much as they have for the last three elections. Shas would get 8 seats, United Torah Judaism 7, as would Meretz – the single leftist party that would run, as Labor would not pass the electoral threshold. Yemina would also get 7 seats. Yisrael Beytenu would get 6 seats, and the United Arab List 16. According to the numbers, Netanyahu would be able to assemble a coalition of 64 MKs from right-wing parties.