Based on current polls, neither Binyamin Netanyahu nor Benny Gantz would be able to form a government after the upcoming September elections – with the only alternative a unity government led by one or the other in rotation. Failing that, the only alternative would be a third round of elections.
And if the preferences of the voters are taken into consideration, that is what will most likely happen. A poll commissioned by Walla News shows that only 34% of Israelis are in favor of a unity government, with 52% against it under all circumstances. The rest are currently undecided on the issue.
Gantz has declared numerous times that he will not go into a government with Netanyahu, but his voter base would rather he do that than opt for a third round of elections, the poll shows. Among Blue and White voters, 51% said they would support a unity government with the Likud, with 42% opposed. Among Likud voters, there was much more opposition to the idea: 49% were against the idea, and only 37% were in favor.
The latest Walla News poll has the Likud and its rightwing and chareidi partners at 57 seats, with 41 for Blue and White and leftist parties. The wild card in the elections is Avigdor Liberman and his Yisrael Beytenu party, which is polling at 10 seats. The United Arab List is likely to get 12 seats. Liberman has insisted that he will only join a government with Likud and Blue and White; he is unlikely to join a Netanyahu-led government that includes chareidi parties, and even more unlikely to join a government with 12 Arab MKs.