The big winner in the latest election poll on Tuesday night was former Justice Minister Ayelet Shaked, who would lead a hypothetical united right-wing list to 12 Knesset seats.
However, Shaked has yet to commit herself to running with any party, while United Right and New Right remain separate entities for the forseeable future.
In addition, the poll, conducted by Channel 12, indicates that a Shaked-led coalition would take votes away from Likud, not adding anything to the overall right-religious bloc’s ability to form a ruling majority.
If elections were held now, the poll predicted the following outcome: Likud – 31, Blue and White – 30, Arab parties, if they unite – 11, Yisrael Beytenu – 10, United Torah Judaism – 8, Shas – 7, Labor – 6, New Right – 5, United Right – 4, Meretz – 4, Ehud Barak’s Israel Democratic Party – 4, Zehut – 0.
That would give a Likud-led coalition (Likud, UTJ, Shas, New Right, URWP) 55 seats, six short of the needed majority, and again makes Yisrael Beytenu the swing vote.
If Shaked were to head a combined United Right/New Right ticket, it would get 12 seats, three more than the two parties separately — but that would come at the expense of Likud, driving it down to 28.
The future looked no brighter for a unified left-wing bloc of Labor, Israel Democratic Party and Meretz. Such an alliance would take 15 seats, more than they would get separately, and cost Blue and White two seats, dropping the latter to 28. Likud was unchanged at 31.