Polls Show Bennet-Shaked Getting 10 Seats, Or 8, Or 6…

The latest political opinion polls, tracking public reaction to the decision taken by Jewish Home leaders Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked to form a new party, show a wide disparity, ranging from 6 to 10 seats for their slate.

Findings produced by Panels Politics and published by Walla! on Sunday indicated that their new party, New Right (HaYamin Hahadash), would win 10 seats if elections were held now. That, plus 4 for Jewish Home, would give the right a total of 14 seats.

Currently, Jewish Home has 8 seats in the Knesset, and recent polls have shown that it would gain 11 or 12 seats if elections were held at this time.

According to the poll, the Likud would remain the largest party, but would lose three mandates to New Right, falling from 31 in the previous poll to 28. The Likud currently has 30 seats in the Knesset.

Regarding other parties, the poll said Yesh Atid would have 15; Benny Gantz’s new Hosen L’Yisrael (Resilience for Israel) 11; Joint List 13; Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu would drop from 6 to 4; Meretz 5; Kulanu sinks from 10 to 5; United Torah Judaism 7; Gesher 4; Shas 4.

MK Levy’s new party, Gesher, would win four seats, while Finance Minister Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu would plummet from 10 mandates to just 5.

Later in the day, however, other polls told a different story.

Channel 10 predicted the move will devastate Jewish Home, giving Bennett and Shaked only 8, and the leftover Jewish Home would not pass the electoral threshold of 4 seats, thus not returning to the Knesset at all.

The Likud, on the other hand, would gain 3 seats more than in a previous poll, up to 30.

Gantz would receive 14 seats, the Joint List 13, and Yesh Atid 11 seats.

Channel 2 pollsters said the New Right party would disappoint its founder with a mere 6 seats, while Jewish Home would win 4.

Since every seat in the Knesset represents a constituency of 140,000 voters, the disparity in the polls means that the researchers are as much as 560,000 votes apart.