A new poll shows the Likud strengthening, and its chief rival in new elections, Yesh Atid, falling in popularity — with a surprising boost in popularity for United Torah Judaism. The Geocartigraphia poll taken over the past week has the Likud getting 26 seats in the Knesset if elections were held today. Yesh Atid would get 24. The results show a gradual strengthening of the Likud, as recent polls showed that Yesh Atid would get more seats than the Likud.
The third largest party in the Knesset would be the United Arab List, which would get 13 seats. Both Jewish Home and Zionist Camp would receive 11 seats, with Yisrael Beitenu getting eight seats, along with Meretz. Moshe Kahlon’s Kulanu party would receive only six.
Most surprising is the nine seats United Torah Judaism would get, according to the poll. Some of those seats would come at the expense of Shas, which the poll shows falling to four seats.
Despite the close numbers for Likud and Yesh Atid — and even if the latter party were to emerge as the biggest party in the Knesset — the likelihood of Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid’s forming a government is slim. While they may not agree with Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu on everything, both Shas and UTJ would almost certainly not join a coalition with Lapid. Jewish Home would also be very unlikely to do so, as the more religious elements of the party would resist that idea. That gives a Netanyahu government more than 50 seats in the Knesset, a figure Lapid would be unable to beat unless he brought United Arab List into his government — another extremely unlikely scenario.