Clinton Ahead of Trump in Final Polls

(Reuters/Bloomberg) —
Hats displaying support for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton are displayed by a sidewalk vendor, Tuesday, Aug. 16, 2016, in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)
Hats displaying support for Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton are displayed by a sidewalk vendor in New York. (AP Photo/Mark Lennihan)

Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton held a four percentage point lead over Republican Donald Trump in the ABC News/Washington Post poll released on Monday, one day before the presidential election.

In a survey of 1,763 likely voters, 47 percent said they backed Clinton and 43 percent said they supported Trump. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, according to the Washington Post.

A separate Bloomberg Politics-Selzer & Co poll released earlier on Monday showed Clinton with a 3 point lead.

The poll showed Clinton leading Trump by 44 percent to 41 percent. Libertarian Gary Johnson was at 4 percent and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein was at 2 percent.

The tightness of the race highlights the importance of turnout for both sides, as the final wave of campaign events, door-knocking, emailing and phone calling comes to a close.

More than a third of likely voters – 37 percent – say they’ve already voted and Clinton is leading Trump with that group, 46 percent to 38 percent.

The results offer a national snapshot of the race, but they fail to reflect the reality of the state-by-state pursuit of the 270 electoral votes needed to win the White House. Trump has strong support in the South, the survey shows, while Clinton has the advantage in the Northeast, Midwest and West.

“The poll reflects a tight race, for sure, but what is so striking is the sour mood of the electorate,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer, who oversaw the survey. “Looking forward, they see scandals aplenty and sizable segments of each side vow to keep fighting even after all the votes are counted.”

The poll of 799 likely voters has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, higher among subgroups, and was conducted by Iowa-based Selzer & Co.

Clinton has more demographic strongholds than Trump, when the two are compared alone. She’s leading among women (+15 percentage points), those under age 35 (+15 percentage points), non-whites (+37 percentage points), Hispanics (+25 percentage points), those with college degrees (+15 percentage points) and suburban women (+22 percentage points).

Trump has some of his strongest support among those without college degrees (+8 percentage points), white men (+25 percentage points), rural dwellers (+30 percentage points) and those who are married (+9 percentage points).

Among Republicans and those who lean that way, Trump has the support of 85 percent, while Clinton is backed by 86 percent of Democrats and those who lean that way.

Trump isn’t doing as well as Republicans overall. Voters are slightly more positive on Republicans than Democrats for their preference for congressional representation, with 48 percent saying they prefer or are leaning toward the Republican U.S. House candidate in their district, while 45 percent pick the Democrat or lean that way.

When the sun rises Wednesday morning on America, the poll shows the nation will remain deeply divided and distrustful of the president-elect. More than half of likely voters, 58 percent, say they’ll feel disappointed or even angry and will vow to keep fighting if their candidate fails to win, while just more than a third say they’ll be cautiously optimistic and plan to give the new president a chance.

A line of attack Trump has pushed – that Clinton would bring the specter of scandal back to the White House – finds resonance with many voters.

More than half, 52 percent, agree with the premise that if she’s elected her administration will have “many major scandals throughout her presidency.” Almost nine in 10 Trump supporters agree, as do 15 percent of Clinton’s supporters.

But Trump isn’t seen as a clear alternative. Almost half, 48 percent, predict that same level of scandal for a Trump administration. Among Clinton supporters, 81 percent envision that level of scandal, while 10 percent of Trump’s supporters do.

Clinton doesn’t appear to have been hurt with her core base by the initial announcement from F.B.I. chief Comey on Oct. 28. Just 3 percent of those who support her or have supported her at some point say that news caused them to change their vote or seriously consider doing so, while 26 percent say the news caused them some discomfort. The vast majority, 70 percent, say it hasn’t worried them.

Both candidates remain historically unpopular for major party nominees, leaving many voters feeling like they have to pick from two bad options. Just 46 percent see Clinton favorably, while 51 percent see her unfavorably. Trump is viewed positively by 41 percent and negatively by 57 percent.

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