Trump Still Not Doing Well Enough to Guarantee Nomination

WASHINGTON (AP) -
A voters checks on his preferred candidate as he casts his ballots during the Nevada Republican presidential caucus at Western High School in Las Vegas, Nevada February 23, 2016. REUTERS/David Becker
A voters checks on his preferred candidate as he casts his ballots during the Nevada Republican presidential caucus in Nevada, Feb. 23. (Reuters/David Becker)

Donald Trump is the only candidate with a path to clinching the Republican nomination for president before the party’s national convention in July, according to an analysis of the delegate math.

But despite four more wins on Tuesday, the billionaire businessman still must do better.

Trump’s rivals can only hope to stop him, forcing a contested convention with an uncertain outcome.

Trump has won 47 percent of the delegates awarded so far, according to the Associated Press delegate count. That’s not good enough — it takes a majority of delegates to win the nomination, according to party rules.

Trump needs to win 54 percent of the remaining delegates to clinch the nomination by the time the primary season ends on June 7.

He could reach the goal by winning most of the remaining states that award all of their delegates to the winner — and doing well in the other states. Next up is Arizona on Tuesday, with 58 delegates at stake.

Trump’s closest rival, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, said on Tuesday that he can clinch the nomination by the time the primaries are over. But he can’t, according to the AP analysis, unless all the other candidates drop out.

Cruz needs to win 78 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination before the convention.

Even if Cruz won all of the remaining winner-take-all states — there are only six more — he couldn’t reach the 1,237 delegates needed to clinch the nomination before the convention.

The other candidate still in the race, Ohio Governor John Kasich, won his home-state Tuesday. But with his poor showing in other states, it is now mathematically impossible for Kasich to reach 1,237 delegates before the convention.

Kasich, who has 142 delegates, needs an additional 1,095. But there are only 1,067 remaining.