Hizbullah carried out an unsuccessful military operation against Israel Monday afternoon. Yet, there is a reasonable chance that they will be satisfied with what was accomplished and not seek a bigger action.
Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah can record a victory for himself. His men crossed the border into Israeli territory without casualties and placed a powerful explosive at an intersection where IDF vehicles pass. When an armored convoy arrived at the location, they detonated the device; it exploded and damaged two vehicles.
Analysts said the Hizbullah activity could be connected to the recent reported elimination by the IDF of Samir al-Kuntar, a notorious Lebanese terrorist who was behind one of the worst terror attacks in Israeli history.
From the announcement released to Lebanese media, it appears that they intended to target a senior Israeli official who was expected to be in the convoy. But he wasn’t. However, from the point of view of Hizbullah, it’s enough to tell anyone who was waiting for the revenge action that the Israel official was in the convoy that was hit.
The truth is different. From the first moment concern aose about any Hizbullah attempt to target these patrols, the Hummer vehicle that goes in front of all convoys in the Har Dov area during the year was changed to a heavy D-9, which is much harder to damage.
Nasrallah had threatened revenge three different times, but it was clear from the outset that Iran was really in charge and would not permit a revenge attack significant enough to ignite a broader conflict. So two weeks passed and then on Monday the attack came. Now, it would appear that business can return to normal.
That’s about 90 percent sure. But there’s still another 10 percent chance that things will not return to normal, and so the IDF remains on alert.