Thinking Long

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell has long been recognized for this ability. From his ability to craft a deal to permanently extend the Bush tax cuts, and delaying the sequestration for two months so that the GOP can get a political win out of it, to his original proposal to raise the debt ceiling (he would have had the president formally request a hike, which would require a two-thirds vote of Congress to stop it, allowing conservatives to vote against it without the accusations of holding it hostage), it usually takes him much less time than anyone else to identify the most conservative, politically feasible position. So much so that National Review’s Dan Foster wrote that by the time most people identify where that position is, McConnell is “usually sitting there in a folding chair, waiting for everybody else to show up.”

In this regard, one of the most underrated Congressional leaders is the Democrat’s leader, Harry Reid. Although most of the time, when contrasted to the calm and unflappable demeanor of McConnell, Reid seems to be flailing and moping, there are times, such as the lame-duck session after the 2010 midterm elections, when Republicans such as Lindsey Graham declare, “Harry Reid has eaten our lunch.”

Another one of those times seems to be headed our way now.

With the 2014 midterm elections looming, the number of seats currently held by Democrats that can be considered reasonable for Republicans to pick up stands between five and seven. The GOP needs six seats to regain control of the Senate. Five Senate Democrats — Mark Begich of Alaska, Mark Pryor of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, Max Baucus of Montana and Kay Hagan of North Carolina — are seeking another term in states carried by Republican Mitt Romney last fall, and two retirements of Democrats are in West Virginia and South Dakota — states which have many gun owners and a GOP-leaning electorate. This makes the gun-control legislation now being pushed by the president so problematic for them. However, doing nothing on gun control is not an option, due to the left wing base’s insistence on getting gun control through Congress.

Enter Harry Reid. After all seemed lost on the gun-control front, the effort got a second wind when Senators Pat Toomey (R-PA) and Joe Manchin (D-WV) announced a deal that would close the internet-sales and gun-show loophole for background checks. This opens the door for a strategy that will help the left on two fronts. It gives the Democrats a gun-control law that ostensibly expands background checks, an idea which has 90 percent support nationwide. This helps paint as extremists Republicans who oppose it on constitutional grounds. Reid managed to accomplish that, while providing cover for the aforementioned vulnerable Democrats.

Reports from Capitol Hill say that Reid’s strategy will be as follows: Reid will invoke cloture on the bill that includes the Toomey-Manchin language. In all likelihood, he will get the votes he needs, as he already has Toomey, who wrote it; Senators Kirk and Collins, who have both announced support, and Senator McCain, who said he is “favorably disposed” to it. He only needs to peel off one more Republican to block any filibuster threat. However, before he brings it up for final passage, Reid will offer up, as amendments, an assault-weapons ban and a high-capacity-magazine ban. This will give the “Red-State” Democrats the ability to vote against these measures,  which allows them to claim to their constituents that they helped stop extreme gun-control measures from becoming law. The final passage of the “background checks” bill will then be a big political win for the Democrats, mostly because the Republicans will fight it, only to lose at the end.

But the win isn’t exactly a win for the left. A prominent gun-rights advocate, Alan Gottlieb, said Friday that “If you really read what’s in the Manchin-Toomey bill…We win rights back like crazy.” Gottlieb, who claims his staff helped write the bill, said that in return for the small hit of background checks for gun shows (which, he points out, is the only sustainable position to take), gun owners will be afforded at least 10 new rights not previously afforded to them. This includes the right to carry firearms across state borders, the ability to buy a handgun in all 50 states (even one you don’t live in), and making attempting to create a gun registry a felony with a 15-year prison term.

So what is it all about, then, for the White House and Harry Reid, as they continue to push a measure in the name of the memory of the slain children of Sandy Hook, which would not have prevented Sandy Hook? Why the strong push to pass a bill which seemingly strengthens gun laws, but upon closer examination, weakens them?

The answer is, as it always is, the politics of the bill. In that respect the president, through the shrewd maneuvering of Senator Reid, is the clear winner.

This article appeared in print on page D46 of the April 17th, 2013 edition of Hamodia.